Not just India's worry, China’s rare earth chokehold tests the mettle of global industry

Global concern over China’s control of critical mineral exports intensified this week, as a growing list of automakers and governments sounded the alarm over mounting supply disruptions. Beijing’s decision to impose strict curbs on rare earth magnet exports, which are vital for electric and petrol vehicles, defence equipment, and clean energy systems, has begun to strain global production lines and diplomatic ties alike.

The restrictions, which took effect on April 4, mandate special export licences for seven rare earth elements (REEs) and related magnets, citing national security and non-proliferation concerns. According to the International Energy Agency and the United States Geological Survey (2025), China still produces 60% of the world’s REEs and controls a staggering 90% of global refining capacity.

The critical materials, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, are essential in electric motors, braking systems, smartphones, aerospace components, and missile technology.

Also Read: European auto suppliers shut plants as China blocks rare earth flow, association says

The supply crunch is already prompting global manufacturers and trade bodies to seek urgent interventions. As Reuters reported, diplomats, automakers, and industry executives from India, Japan, and Europe are urgently seeking meetings with Chinese officials to expedite stalled export licences. A Japanese business delegation is expected in Beijing in early June, while European envoys have requested “emergency” meetings on the issue.

The Financial Times previously reported that the licensing process has led to delays lasting weeks or even months, affecting European manufacturers and placing countries like India and South Korea on high alert. Wolfgang Niedermark of the Federation of German Industries (BDI) warned that Europe has a rapidly closing window to prevent serious disruptions, according to the Financial Times.

On Tuesday, Hildegard Müller, head of Germany’s powerful automotive lobby, echoed that concern. “If the situation is not changed quickly, production delays and even production outages can no longer be ruled out,” she said, as reported by Reuters.

Also Read: Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export curbs takes hold

India on edge

India, the world’s third-largest automobile market, is among the hardest-hit nations. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) warned in early April that component inventories could run out by June. Though Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest passenger carmaker, had earlier claimed there was no immediate impact, concerns have grown louder across the sector.

Many of Maruti’s export-focused models, such as the Jimny, Fronx, and the upcoming e-Vitara electric SUV, rely heavily on Chinese-supplied magnets. Meanwhile, Bajaj Auto has warned that any further delays could seriously impact India’s electric vehicle production, as reported by Reuters.

Indian car and component manufacturers told govt officials last week that auto production could grind to a halt within days due to Chinese export restrictions. This comes after rare earth magnet consignments remain stranded at Chinese ports due to licence bottlenecks, according to Reuters.

In light of this, SIAM and the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) are expected to send a delegation to China next week to seek expedited clearances.

Additionally, the Ministry of Heavy Industries is preparing a stakeholder meeting to discuss the formation of a domestic rare earth magnet industry. Proposals under consideration include public-private partnerships and production-linked incentives.

What is concerning is that Indian firms are reportedly being asked by Chinese suppliers to purchase entire motor assemblies to bypass red tape. This significantly increases costs, The Indian Express reported. Prolonged disruption could derail India’s electric mobility targets. SIAM warned on May 19 that although production has not yet stopped, the risk remains.

Also Read: Magnet crisis: Auto giants rush to China for rare earth rescue

A global squeeze

The United States, which sources over 61% of its rare earth imports and 93% of yttrium compounds from China, according to USGS data, is bracing for severe shortages. On June 2, The Economic Times reported that Tesla and General Motors have flagged the risk of production stoppages.

Automotive consultant Michael Dunne said that China could bring American automotive assembly plants to a standstill, reported ET.

A May letter from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and others, urged the Trump administration to address the crisis. “Without reliable access to these elements and magnets, automotive suppliers will be unable to produce critical automotive components,” the group warned, listing everything from throttle bodies and sensors to speakers and power steering systems, reported Reuters.

Mountain Pass, the United States’ only operating rare earth mine, still depends on Chinese processors. Even MP Materials’ upcoming facility in Texas will only produce 1,000 tonnes annually by 2027. In comparison, China produces 300,000 tonnes, according to Bloomberg.

Europe has reduced its reliance on Chinese REEs from 98% to 46.3%, according to the European Commission, but current stockpiles may last only until mid-2025. Carmakers such as BMW and Volkswagen and aerospace firms like Airbus are reviewing long-term supply arrangements.

Japan, which still imports 60% of its rare earth elements from China, has attempted to reduce exposure through strategic investments in Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths. Lynas is the largest producer of separated rare earths outside China. However, Japan’s electronics and electric vehicle sectors remain vulnerable to supply disruptions.

According to the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), Korea’s imports of 37 rare minerals from China amounted to 7.03 billion dollars in 2023. This marks a 3.3-fold increase from 2.13 billion dollars in 2018. China’s share of Korea’s rare mineral imports grew from 23% to 36%, with its dependency on Chinese imports for major minerals now surpassing 50%.

Even Australia, despite possessing significant rare earth reserves, sends 90% of its heavy REEs to China for processing, as reported by the Australian Financial Review. While Lynas Rare Earths leads in separated REE production outside China, it still sends certain oxides to China for final refining. Australia is expected to remain reliant on Chinese REE refining capabilities until at least 2026.

Also Read: A new era of trade warfare has begun for the US and China

Strategic high ground

Beyond the economic fallout, the export curbs also offer China a strategic advantage. Beijing now requires end-user disclosures as part of the export licensing process, giving it deeper insight into global industrial ecosystems.

The issue is now surfacing at the highest diplomatic levels. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss the export ban during a scheduled call this week, according to White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. “Our administration officials continue to be engaged in correspondence with their Chinese counterparts,” she said. Trump has accused Beijing of violating the Geneva trade agreement due to the slow pace in easing restrictions.

Also Read: Why rare Earths are the new battleground in US-China trade war

China played its hand in 2010

This is not the first time China has weaponised rare earths. In 2010, it briefly cut off exports to Japan during a territorial dispute, prompting Tokyo to diversify its supply sources and invest in refining abroad. Other nations, however, failed to act decisively. The United States attempted to reduce its reliance, but domestic processing projects stalled and manufacturers resisted higher costs.

Today, China’s grip is tighter than ever. Its state-controlled refining sector dictates the flow of rare earth magnets that are crucial for a wide range of strategic industries, from electric vehicles to military hardware.

As Frank Fannon, a former US Assistant Secretary of State and now a minerals consultant, put it: “We have a production challenge, and we need to leverage our whole-of-government approach to secure resources and ramp up domestic capability as soon as possible. The time horizon to do this was yesterday.”

Once again, China has pulled the same lever. And once again, the world finds itself unprepared.