World War III in the air? Benjamin Netanyahu–Ali Khamenei's conflict is now on a knife's edge

As leaders of the G7 gathered in Canada this week, the bloodshed between Israel and Iran cast a long shadow over their summit. Yet their hands appear tied. Despite the intense aerial assaults and civilian casualties, there is little sign that world powers will intervene meaningfully. The military exchanges, while escalating, have not crossed into the territory of total war.

Israel claims it has air supremacy over Tehran. Its latest strikes targeted key nuclear and military installations. In return, Iran fired missiles into Tel Aviv, killing three civilians. Tehran reports hundreds of deaths from Israeli airstrikes. Israel’s government claims its latest operations are "a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival," as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Still, despite the fury in the skies, neither side has yet used its most destructive weapons. The conflict has not turned nuclear. The United States, though affected, its embassy in Tel Aviv sustained minor damage, is avoiding direct action.

“If Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, in a warning aimed at halting Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

Also Read: Iran is no pushover: Israel is learning the hard way

WWIII: Trump, Putin, and the possibility of escalation

US President Donald Trump, writing on Truth Social, signalled support for Israel but held back from calling for American boots on the ground.

“Certain Iranian hardliner's spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!” Trump declared. He urged Iran to “make a deal, before there is nothing left.”

Yet Trump also left room for diplomacy. He reportedly suggested that Vladimir Putin could broker a ceasefire. While this may seem unlikely, the idea hints at how neither Washington nor Moscow wants to be dragged directly into the fray—at least for now.

Putin himself has not spoken directly about the matter. But his Chechen commander, General Apti Alaudinov, did not mince words. “World War 3… has already taken on a new turn and a new momentum,” he wrote on Telegram, calling for the mobilisation of up to one million troops. His message: “We all need to unite, unite, unite at all levels.”

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A regional fire, not yet a global inferno

For now, Israel and Iran remain locked in a bilateral conflict with global consequences but limited global involvement. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey has signalled any intention to intervene. The Houthis continue their own campaign of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, kept in check by occasional US airstrikes.

Yet observers warn of how easily that could change. A significant miscalculation, say, a US bombing of Tehran or the transfer of a nuclear weapon from Russia or North Korea to Iran could ignite a full-scale war.

One analyst described the current moment as “peak danger”, the point at which escalation seems inevitable but might still be avoidable.

Also Read: F-35s come under heavy fire again: Iran claims another kill as Pentagon slashes future fleet budget

World War III: Netanyahu’s tactics and the Gaza connection

Netanyahu’s critics argue that his recent decisions are driven more by political survival than national defence. As the war in Gaza drags on with rising global condemnation, some believe the strikes on Iran are meant to shift the conversation.

“When Netanyahu faces global pressure, he makes a move to relieve the psychological burden on himself,” wrote a commentator from Turkey’s Yeni Şafak. The same article accused Netanyahu of orchestrating massacres under the guise of distributing aid, likening his actions to “Hitler reincarnated in the form of a devil.”

Meanwhile, European activists aboard the "Madleen" yacht—attempting to deliver aid to Gaza—were intercepted by Israeli forces, in a scene reminiscent of the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. This time, the passengers were mostly European, and Israel acted with more restraint.

Still, violence continues. In Gaza, airstrikes and aid deliveries happen simultaneously. In one instance, Israeli forces reportedly opened fire on civilians during a food distribution.

Also Read: The big bad Trump bomb that Israel wants so much

Who holds the trigger?

Observers are divided. Some liken the October 7 Hamas attacks to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, a potential spark for global war. Hamas, some argue, wants to provoke a wider conflict that draws in Iran and Russia against the US and Israel.

So far, though, the world has not taken the bait. Iran is weakened, its allies cautious. Russia is focused on Ukraine. America, especially under Trump, remains reluctant to intervene unless Israel faces a dire threat.

What’s more likely is a continuation of Israel’s aim to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions by force—an objective Trump supports from the sidelines. When he pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the move accelerated Iran’s nuclear programme. Now Israel is taking action to stop it outright.

Could things still spiral out of control? Certainly. The conflict, like dry tinder, awaits a single spark. If that comes—from a misfire, a direct hit on a holy site, or the delivery of a nuclear weapon—then a broader war could erupt overnight.

But until then, the G7’s carefully worded calls for de-escalation will continue. The bombings will go on. And Netanyahu, under fire both at home and abroad, may yet try to pull the world deeper into war.

Whether the world follows—or walks away—will determine if we are witnessing the beginning of World War III.